Nature Climate Change published a 2026 study that estimated the severe effects of El Niño. The
study cited that economic losses could reach $35 trillion by the end of this century. The
1982-1983 El Niño caused a 0.5-year reduction in life expectancy, with monetary losses of $2.6
trillion, while the 1997-98 El Niño resulted in a 0.4-year reduction in life expectancy at a cost of
$4.7 trillion. But all these figures fail to account for the vulnerable groups who bear the cost?
This blog will try to understand one such vulnerable group, women, through a lens of Maternal
Health, Food and Nutrition, Gender Based Violence, and Mental Health.
El Niño is a periodic climatic event characterized by warming of sea surface temperatures in the
central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Zhao et al., 2023). It is the world’s most
consequential annual climate event, triggering extreme weather such as floods, droughts, and
heatwaves, and disrupting the global food system. The gendered health consequences of El Niño
are often ignored in the mainstream climate discussion, though evidence suggests some serious
impact on women’s health and pre-existing inequalities. Studying the effects of El Niño on
women’s health is not a public health question, but a question of structural injustice.
The Maternal Health Toll
The most acute and underreported dimension of El Niño is its impact on pregnancy and maternal
outcomes. Extreme heat, floods, and drought are intensified further by El Niño and are
independently associated with premature birth, stillbirth, and low birth weight. Women coming
from a low or middle-income strata were at high risk due to a fragile baseline maternal
healthcare system.
Adverse maternal outcomes are documented to have a significant impact on economic stability,
family dynamics, and the national healthcare system. Lower-income countries are said to have a
20% loss in household income, affecting families, child care, and household management. These
vulnerabilities are not created by El Niño; it further intensifies them. Heavy flooding makes it
difficult to reach antenatal clinics. Health systems are delaying non-emergency care due to
overwhelming demand. Physiologically more vulnerable women in their pregnant state are left
more exposed to heat stress and vector-borne illness.
For pregnant women, malaria and dengue, both of which are climate-sensitive and are seen to be
more prevalent during El Niño, pose a significant risk in the form of placental malaria, severe
anemia, and preterm delivery. These are not edge cases. They are known, regular, expected, and
are a consequence of a climate pattern that has been known for decades.
Food, Nutrition, and the Economics of Hunger
The impacts of El Niño on the rainfall regime are directly felt in poor harvests, rising food
prices, and food insecurity. Eighteen countries experienced food crises, driven by weather
extremes, especially El Niño-related droughts and floods, which had a major impact in Southern
Africa, Southern Asia, and the Horn of Africa.
This is a shock that is first absorbed by women and girls. Women in food-insecure households in
the Global South often consume the final and most meager portions of food, and this is a social
norm that is perpetuated by any food price shock, but exacerbated by each. The impact is
tangible and enduring. According to a 2024 World Vision report, malnutrition disproportionately
impacts women and girls and costs the global economy over $1.6 trillion annually in lost
productivity and potential. If there were no stunting or anemia, 15.8 million more girls would
enroll in secondary school annually.
But this is the economic argument that has consistently been left out of the climate debate. El
Niño malnutrition is not only a humanitarian crisis, but it's also an investment crisis. Teen girls
who do not complete their schooling earn less, have babies at an early age, and are at higher risk
of having malnourished babies. It's an intergenerational cycle accelerated by El Niño.
The Invisible Economy Takes the Hardest Hit
But there is a dimension to the economic effects of El Niño that doesn't show up in GDP
numbers, and for that matter, GDP wasn't invented to. The International Labor Organization
(ILO) estimated that approximately 16.4 billion hours of unpaid care work are performed every
day, equivalent to 2 billion people working full-time without a paycheck. This work, valued at
the minimum wage, would cost $11 trillion an hour, and represent 9% of global GDP if it were
being paid, and is therefore an unpaid and undercompensated form of care. Three-quarters of this
work is done by the women, requiring an average of 4 hours and 25 minutes a day, compared to
1 hour and 23 minutes for men.
This burden is multiplied many times over by El Niño. When water sources are depleted, women
have to walk more to obtain water. Women bear the brunt of caring for family members when
they become sick with diseases that are caused by climate change. If the schools are closed or
flooded, women take care of the children. Women's participation in paid labor markets is already
constrained by the growth of unpaid care work, which is exacerbated by climate change. As
populations age and grow more vulnerable to climate pressures, the demand for care is likely to
increase.
Women currently work 2 hours more at home than men, which is detrimental to women's labor
force participation and to the overall productivity of the economy. This imbalance is not caused
by El Niño. It opens it up systematically with each of its visits.
Gender Based Violence: The Crisis Within the Crisis
Gender-based violence is always on the rise during times of disaster, and when it comes to El
Niño, it's no different. The Coronation of a social setting, lack of law enforcement, and higher
stressors are the ideal recipe for an escalation of acts of violence in disaster situations. These
stressors, such as poverty, lack of resources, and disruption in health and social services, can
trigger violence, creating permissive environments for violence to occur and drivers for violence
against women and girls.
The economic aspect of this is strong. In 2011 alone, estimates of output lost due to intimate
partner violence in Vietnam were 1.6% of GDP, 1.28% of GDP in Bangladesh, and 1.27% of
GDP in Uganda. These costs increase when El Niño worsens poverty and resource depletion,
both of which are cited in research as having a substantial impact on domestic violence. These
costs increase during years of high El Niño, when the conditions that research has identified as
the most important drivers of domestic violence, poverty, and resource depletion are worsened.
They just do not keep records of the climate events that contributed to their formation.
Mental Health: The Burden Nobody Measures
Perhaps the most under-explored and impactful of the mental health effects of El Niño on women is
that of being out of school. One of the most under-researched and far-reaching effects of El Niño on
women is its impact on their education. In disaster contexts, the factors of displacement, grief,
economic stress, and caregiving overload are known risk factors for depression, anxiety, and
post-traumatic stress. Women bear the brunt of emotional and care labor during crisis situations and
are more exposed to these stressors; however, mental health interventions in El Niño preparedness
planning are negligible.
The Policy Failure Behind the Health Crisis
It is no news that El Niño is occurring. It is predicted months in advance, monitored by high-tech
climate models, and recognized by international organizations. Not much is known, or even if it is
known, it's not often mentioned, about its gendered architecture.
With the accelerating climate crisis, the welfare, health, and development of communities are at risk.
Social vulnerability is key to preventing the aggravation of adverse health impacts, discrimination,
and inequalities. It means disaggregating health data by gender during El Niño events, and
integrating maternal health surge capacity into the planning for El Niño, and recognizing gender
based violence as a predictable outcome of El Niño, rather than an unfortunate side effect.
The economics are crystal clear: even a short stint of food insecurity during childhood can damage
children's physical and cognitive growth for years, affect their learning outcomes and earning
potential, and create intergenerational poverty traps that are very hard to break. Investing in women's
health before and during El Niño events is not charity. It's good stewardship.
Conclusion
El Niño will make a comeback. It always does, and in a warming world, its strength is likely to
increase. It's not an issue of women taking a bigger hit — they will. But will policymakers,
economists, and health systems finally plan their responses around that knowledge? This
evidence has been known for years. The needed political resolve to do something about it has
been lacking.
By A Suchetas Ram
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